For the first time this year, Stephen Harper posts the best momentum rating of the three main party leaders.
As the holiday season approaches, the governing Conservative Party remains ahead of its rivals, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Public Opinion in partnership with the Toronto Star.
The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,005 adults also finds Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper with the best momentum rating among the three main federal party leaders.
Voting Intention
Across the country, 38 per cent of decided voters (-2 since late October) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.
The Liberals have continued to drop and are now at 23 per cent (-3), below the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 17 per cent (=), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent (+2), and the Green Party with 10 per cent (+3).
Regional Breakdowns
Once again, a majority of decided voters in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (55%) voice support for the Tories. In British Columbia, the governing party remains on top (44%), with the NDP (25%) edging the Liberals (19%) for second place.
In Ontario, 43 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Conservatives, expanding the Tory lead in this province to 14 points. In Quebec, the Bloc gained two points (42%) to solidify its position as the leader, while the stalemate between the two main federalist parties continues (Conservatives 19%, Liberals 19%).
Approval
Stephen Harper maintains the same approval rating he had at the end of October (34%), while NDP leader Jack Layton lost two points and is now at 24 per cent. Just 12 per cent of respondents approve of the performance of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, down three points since late October.
Momentum
Ignatieff’s momentum score is the worst of all three party leaders at -41 (4% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Liberal leader over the past month, while 45% say their views have worsened). Layton also underwent a setback, going from -4 in late October to -10 this month. Harper managed to shed some negative perceptions, going from -13 to -9.
The Economy
A majority of Canadians (53%, +3) are satisfied with the reaction of the federal government to the economic crisis, while 40 per cent (-6) are dissatisfied.
As was the case last month, Quebec is the only region where a plurality of respondents disapprove of the way the federal government has dealt with the crisis.
Two-in-five Canadians (46%) either completely or moderately trust Harper to do the right thing to help the economy recover, while only one-in-five (21%) feel the same way about Ignatieff.
Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, is also trusted by 44 per cent of Canadians, although 27 per cent are undecided.
Analysis
This edition of the Canadian Political Pulse provides good news for two minor parties. The Greens gained three points nationally and are clearly ahead of their total in the 2008 election, with a particularly good showing in Ontario that places them within striking distance of the NDP.
The Bloc has clearly benefitted from Michael Ignatieff’s low approval numbers, and has cracked the 40 per cent mark in Quebec for the second fortnight in a row. Tories and Grits remain locked in a tight race for second place.
The NDP is holding on to the same level of support it had in late October. Noticeable gains in British Columbia, where the Ignatieff effect appears to have subsided, have been offset by a drop in Ontario.
While the Conservatives have lost two points since the previous survey, their lead over the Liberals remains substantial, particularly in Ontario, where key ridings in the 905 region may end up defining the colour—and the size—of Canada’s next government. Also, satisfaction with the federal government’s response to the crisis has grown steadily in the past two months.
The Liberals have a lot of catching up to do. Their national total of 23 per cent represents their worst showing on an Angus Reid federal voting intention poll since Ignatieff took over as leader, and is only one point better than the last survey that featured Stéphane Dion as leader—in early December 2008—immediately after the Liberal-NDP coalition discussions.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
PAST ISSUE:
December 2008 Canadian Political Pulse
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Vice President, Public Affairs
+416 712 5498
jodi.shanoff@angus-reid.com
