Momentum score for the Prime Minister drops, as a majority of Canadians expect a federal election to take place this year.

Since the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament, the governing Conservative Party has lost support across Canada, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) begins the year in a good position, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,077 adults also finds that the momentum rating for Stephen Harper has dropped noticeably since the final month of 2009.

Voting Intention

Across the country, 34 per cent of decided voters (-2 since December) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.

The Liberal Party is second with 28 per cent (-1), ahead of the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.

The NDP is a strong third with 19 per cent (+3), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (-2), and the Green Party with eight per cent (+2).

Regional Breakdowns

As was the case throughout 2009, a majority of decided voters in Alberta (62%) and half in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (49%) voice support for the Tories. In British Columbia, the governing party remains on top (40%), with the Liberals (25%) slightly ahead of the NDP (22%).

In Ontario, 37 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Conservatives, giving the governing party a four-point lead over the Liberals (33%). The NDP had a particularly strong showing in Ontario this week (22%).

In Quebec, the Bloc is still first with 37 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 26 per cent, the Conservatives with 16 per cent, and the NDP with 13 per cent.

Approval

In the first approval rating survey conducted since prorogation, Stephen Harper has lower numbers. Only 28 per cent of respondents approve of the performance of the Prime Minister and Conservative leader (-4 since December), and a majority (51%) disapprove.

The approval rating for NDP leader Jack Layton stands at 26 per cent (-3), while Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff posts a modest gain of two points (17%).

Momentum

While Harper closed 2009 with a better momentum score than Ignatieff, this is no longer the case. Now, Harper’s score is the worst of the three leaders at -35 (9% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 44% say their views have worsened).

Ignatieff does better this month, at -26 (compared to -33 in December 2009). Layton still manages the best showing of the three leaders at -9, although this score is worse than the one posted by the NDP leader last month (-6).

An Election in 2010?

Three-in-five Canadians (61%) think it is “very likely” or “moderately likely” that Canada will have a federal election in 2010, while only 24 per cent deem this possibility as “not too likely” or “not likely at all.” It is important to note that the views on the likelihood of an election are lower among Conservative voters (57%) than among Liberal voters (69%).

If an election indeed takes place this year, one-in-four Canadians (25%) say they would prefer a Conservative majority government, while 12 per cent would rather have a Conservative minority. Conversely, 24 per cent of respondents would like to have a Liberal majority, and 16 per cent would choose a Liberal minority.

However, when asked about the likely outcome of a federal election, two-in-five Canadians (39%) foresee a Conservative minority, while 16 per cent expect a Conservative majority. Only eight per cent of respondents think the Liberals will get to form a majority government, and 16 per cent predict a Liberal minority.

Analysis

This edition of the Canadian Political Pulse shows that prorogation has hurt the governing party in Ontario, where the Tories have dropped below 40 per cent for the first time since the fall of 2009. The Liberals are doing better than in the last election, but the main winner this week is the NDP, with noticeable gains in Quebec and Ontario.

Harper’s momentum score has dropped dramatically in the first month of the year, while Layton appears stable and Ignatieff shows some signs of recovery.

The electorate expects to head to the ballot box before the end of 2010. Canadians are almost evenly divided in their “wishes” for the next government (37% Conservative, 40% Liberal), but there is a deeper difference when they assess “reality” (55% Conservative, 24% Liberal).

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com