A majority of Canadians believe a federal election this year is “very likely” or “moderately likely”.

Canada’s two main federal parties are still separated by four points, and a majority of Canadians believe that a federal election will take place in 2010, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

Voting Intention

Across the country, 34 per cent of decided voters (+1 since late January) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.

The Liberal Party is second with 30 per cent (+1), four points ahead of the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18 per cent (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (-1), and the Green Party with eight per cent (+1).

Regional Breakdowns

The Tories remain the most popular party in Alberta (62%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (48%).

In British Columbia, the governing party is holding on to the top spot (36%), with the NDP (30%) maintaining its edge over the Liberals (26%).

In Ontario, a tight race continues. The Tories (37%) are barely ahead of the Grits (35%), followed by the NDP with 17 per cent and the Greens at 11 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc is first with 35 per cent (-7), followed by the Liberals with 28 per cent (+2), the NDP with 14 per cent (=), and the Conservatives also with 14 per cent (+3).

Approval

Once again, Stephen Harper (26%) was unable to reach the 30 per cent mark in approval rating, and actually lost a point since the last Angus Reid Public Opinion survey conducted in late January. The approval rating for Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff remains low (15%, -2). The NDP’s Jack Layton now has the best numbers on this indicator (29%, +2).

Momentum

For the third time this year, Harper posts the worst momentum score of the three leaders. In fact, his score did not move at all since late January and remains at -34 (7% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 41% say their views have worsened). Ignatieff ( -19) is performing better this year—his score in December 2009 was -33. Layton is very close to posting a positive momentum score (-1).

An Election in 2010?

Once again, a majority of Canadians (57%) think it is “very likely” or “moderately likely” that Canada will have a federal election in 2010, while only 28 per cent deem this possibility as “not too likely” or “not likely at all.”

If an election indeed takes place this year, about a quarter of Canadians (26%) say they would prefer to have a Conservative majority government, while nine per cent would rather have a Conservative minority. Conversely, 19 per cent of respondents would like to have a Liberal majority, and an equal proportion (19%) would choose a Liberal minority.

However, when asked about the likely outcome of a federal election, two-in-five Canadians (39%) believe the Conservatives will form a minority government, while nine per cent expect a Conservative majority. Only six per cent of respondents think the Liberals will form a majority government, and 20 per cent predict a Liberal minority.

Analysis

The federal political race has tightened after the government’s decision to prorogue parliament. The main parties are separated by four points for the second time this year, and many Canadians believe that a new ballot will be called in 2010.

With no debates taking place in the House of Commons, public perceptions on the three main party leaders did not go through any severe changes, with the exception of a slight increase for Layton—who recently revealed that he will undergo treatment for prostate cancer—on approval and momentum.

The Conservatives are still leading nationally, but their support is not as strong, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia: two provinces where the governing party used to garner the backing of more than 40 per cent of decided voters just a few weeks ago.

The Liberals have reached the 30 per cent mark nationally, but are stagnant on the questions related to the outcome of the next election. Almost two-in-five Canadians would like to have a Liberal government, but only one-in-four are predicting that this will actually happen. However, some disenchanted voters are definitely taking a second look at the Grits, placing the main opposition party four points ahead of its 2008 electoral result.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Public Affairs
+416 712 5498
jodi.shanoff@angus-reid.com