Public perceptions of Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff did not go through any considerable shifts in March.
The federal budget appears to have helped the governing Conservative Party in Canada, while support for the two main opposition parties remains stagnant, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
Voting Intention
Across the country, 35 per cent of decided voters (+2 since late February) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.
The Liberal Party is second with 29 per cent (=), three points ahead of the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 20 per cent (=), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (=), and the Green Party with seven per cent (-2). The NDP reached the 20 per cent plateau for the second time this year.
Regional Breakdowns
The Tories remain the most popular party in Alberta (62%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (46%), and also have the upper hand in British Columbia (40%). In Ontario, Tories and Grits remain in a virtual dead heat (Con. 36%, Lib. 35%).
In Quebec, the Bloc remains in first place (38%), followed by the Liberals (24%). The Tories and the NDP are tied for third place with 16 per cent.
The NDP is second in British Columbia with 28 per cent, and remains strong in Ontario (22%). The Greens fell to seven per cent in Canada’s most populous province, after a particularly good showing late last month,
Approval
The first weeks of activity in the House of Commons after the controversial prorogation did not do much for the three main party leaders. The approval rating for Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper remains at 29 per cent, while NDP leader Jack Layton is still the best rated leader at 32 per cent (-4 since last month). Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff—who was coming off the best approval numbers of his tenure in February—is at 16 per cent (-3).
Momentum
Ignatieff posted the worst momentum score this month at -26 (32% of respondents say their opinion of the Liberal leader has worsened, while six per cent report an improvement). Harper was not far behind at -24, while Layton is still the best leader in this category at -6. Last month, Layton had a momentum score of +3.
Analysis
The budget appears to have helped the Conservatives and hurt the Greens. The Liberals and the NDP are still supported by almost half of Canadians, and would increase their share of the popular vote if an election were held tomorrow. The Bloc is down one point from its 2008 total, but still dominates in Quebec.
Public perceptions on the two main leaders have been hard to change. About half of Canadians disapprove of either Harper or Ignatieff, and say that their opinion has not changed over the course of the past month. The two leaders will have opportunities to move the numbers over the next few weeks, with the Prime Minister preparing to host the G8 and G20 Summits and the Official Opposition leader emerging from the three-day “Canada at 150″ conference in Montreal.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
Stephen Harper Polls from Angus Reid
CONTACT:
Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Public Affairs
+416 712 5498
jodi.shanoff@angus-reid.com
Methodology: From March 25 to March 26, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,004 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
