Conservatives Remain Ahead of Labour as UK Election Approaches

Published on Mar 11 - 2010

Three-in-ten respondents believe that the 2010 General Election will lead to a hung Parliament.

As the election call in the United Kingdom draws near, the opposition Conservative Party is holding on to a double-digit lead over the governing Labour Party, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 2,003 British adults also shows that three-in-ten Britons believe that the upcoming ballot will return a hung Parliament.

Voting Intention

Across Great Britain, 39 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-1 since mid-February) would support the Conservative candidate in their constituency if a General Election were held tomorrow.

The governing Labour Party remains in second place with 26 per cent (=), followed by the Liberal Democrats with 18 per cent (=).

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is fourth with six per cent (=), followed by the British National Party (BNP) with three per cent (-1), and the Green Party also with three per cent (+1).

Regional Breakdowns

At least 40 per cent of decided voters and leaners in London, South of England and Midlands and Wales would support the Tories in the next General Election.

Labour remains on top in Scotland (36%, +2), but the Scottish National Party (SNP) is now in second place with 28 per cent (+8), followed by the Tories (17%, -5) and the Lib-Dems (15%, -1). Labour and the Conservatives are tied in at 32 per cent in the North.

Other Demographics

Two-in-five decided voters aged 35 to 54 and over the age of 55 (40%) would cast a ballot for the Tories. Labour is just four points behind amongst voters aged 18 to 34 (34% to 30%). The Conservatives lead Labour by ten points amongst men, and by 17 points amongst women.

Outcomes

One third of Britons (33%) would prefer a Conservative majority after the 2010 General Election, while 22 per cent would rather have a Labour majority and 18 per cent favour a hung Parliament.

However, when asked about which outcome they actually expect to see when the election is over, the views change drastically. Only 12 per cent of Britons expect Labour to remain in power with a majority, while 28 per cent predict a Conservative government. Three-in-ten Britons (31%) foresee a hung Parliament.

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