Jack Layton posts a positive momentum score, as his party reaches the 20 per cent mark for the first time since the 2008 campaign.

The three main federal party leaders have improved their standing during the Winter Olympic break, and the ruling Conservatives maintain their four-point advantage over the Liberals as Canada prepares to review the latest federal budget, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

Voting Intention

Across the country, 33 per cent of decided voters (-1 since mid-February) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.

The Liberal Party is second with 29 per cent (-1), three points ahead of the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 20 per cent (+2), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (=), and the Green Party also with nine per cent (+1). This is the best result for the NDP since an Angus Reid survey conducted in the middle of the 2008 federal campaign.

Regional Breakdowns

The Tories remain the most popular party in Alberta (55%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (52%), but have lost ground on other regions. In Ontario, Tories and Grits are virtually tied (Con. 34%, Lib. 33%). In British Columbia, they are in a dead heat at 33 per cent, with the NDP a close third with 25 per cent.

While the Liberals have improved in Alberta (27%), they continue to trail the Bloc Québécois in Quebec (BQ 34%, Lib. 23%), with the Tories in third place with 19 per cent. The NDP, despite falling to third place in BC, had a good showing in Ontario (22%).

Approval

With no activity in the House of Commons over the past few weeks, the three main party leaders posted higher approval ratings than they did in mid-February. Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper gained three points and is now at 29 per cent. Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff had the best fortnight of his tenure, and gained four points (19%). However, the NDP’s Jack Layton did even better, improving on his mid-February score by seven points (36%). Layton’s performance now gets a thumbs up from one third of Canadians.

Momentum

While Harper posted the worst momentum score of the three leaders again, his numbers (-29) are not as bad as they were last month (-34). In all, seven per cent of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 37 per cent say their views have worsened. Ignatieff ( -19) maintained his showing from mid-February, a definite improvement from his -33 score in December 2009. Layton has become the first leader to reach the positive momentum plateau (+3) in 2010.

The Leaders

With the possibility of a new election fresh in the minds of Canadians, it was important to review how voters feel about the current crop of political leaders.

Canadians are evenly divided in their assessment of Harper (43% think the Tories should keep him until the next election, 44% believe he should be replaced). However, Tory voters came out in favour of their leader by a 5-to-1 margin (80% would keep Harper, 16% wan a change at the helm.)

The level of support from party faithful is equally impressive for the NDP’s Layton (82% of NDP voters would keep him, 12% would replace him) and the Bloc’s Gilles Duceppe (only seven per cent of Bloc voters would change Duceppe, and 88 per cent would retain him).

The Green Party’s Elizabeth May is supported by 62 per cent of Green voters, while 19 per cent would like to face the next federal election with a new leader.

Ignatieff had the lowest score on this question. Almost three-in-five Liberal voters (57%) would keep him as leader of the Liberal Party, while three-in-ten (30%) would replace him.

Analysis

The federal budget presents the first opportunity for the opposition to topple the government, following tense weeks marked by the prorogation of Parliament and the Olympic break.

The numbers show the Liberals gaining in British Columbia and maintaining a tight race in Ontario, while the Tories remain strong in the Prairies. The Bloc is now in the mid-thirties in Quebec, with the Tories closing in on the Grits. The NDP arrives at the spring session with its best national numbers since the last campaign, and with a popular leader who boasts a positive momentum score.

It is important to note that all three main leaders experienced their biggest increases on approval at a time when the Olympics were on and there was no activity in the House of Commons. The discussions about the budget and its repercussions will play a key role in defining whether Canadians continue to show an increased rapport with the leaders and their parties, or give way to more negative assessments as the year progresses.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jodi Shanoff, Senior Vice President, Public Affairs
+416 712 5498
jodi.shanoff@angus-reid.com