Angus Reid Public Opinion—the public affairs practice of Vision Critical—issued a correct forecast of the 2012 United States presidential election using its unique online methodology.
In all, 11 predictions were offered, including the national popular vote, as well as the presidential and Senate races in five states. The final results for all contenders were accurately predicted within the advertised margin of sampling error and, in the 10 races that did not suggest a tie, the winner was properly indicated.
“With last night’s predictions, we have now covered 32 different democratic processes in North America since 2007, issuing a correct forecast 97 per cent of the time,” said Vision Critical Executive Chairman Angus Reid. “This achievement proves the validity of our carefully recruited online panels, and gives our clients the security of knowing that our findings are an accurate representation of the sentiments of an entire nation or state.”
The surveys were conducted on Springboard America, Vision Critical’s proprietary United States market panel which boasts some of the highest response rates in the industry.
| National Presidential | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Obama | 51% | 50.6% |
| Romney | 48% | 47.8% |
| Other | 1% | 1.6% |
| Florida Presidential | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Obama | 49% | 50% |
| Romney | 49% | 49% |
| Other | 2% | 1% |
| Florida Senate | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Nelson | 53% | 55% |
| Mack | 45% | 42% |
| Other | 2% | 3% |
| Michigan Presidential | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Obama | 52% | 54% |
| Romney | 47% | 45% |
| Other | 1% | 1% |
| Michigan Senate | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Stabenow | 56% | 58% |
| Hoekstra | 43% | 39% |
| Other | 1% | 3% |
| Ohio Presidential | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Obama | 51% | 50% |
| Romney | 48% | 48% |
| Other | 1% | 2% |
| Ohio Senate | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Brown | 52% | 50% |
| Mandel | 46% | 45% |
| Other | 2% | 5% |
| Pennsylvania Presidential | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Obama | 51% | 52% |
| Romney | 47% | 47% |
| Other | 2% | 1% |
| Pennsylvania Senate | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Casey | 53% | 54% |
| Smith | 46% | 45% |
| Other | 1% | 1% |
| Wisconsin Presidential | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Obama | 53% | 53% |
| Romney | 46% | 46% |
| Other | 1% | 1% |
| Wisconsin Senate | ||
| ARPO | Final | |
| Baldwin | 50% | 52% |
| Thompson | 48% | 46% |
| Other | 2% | 2% |
Media Contact
Mario Canseco
Angus Reid Public Opinion
604-647-3570
mario@angus-reid.com
About Vision Critical
Vision Critical is the world's leading provider of insight communities, currently supporting over 650 brands worldwide. We build software and provide comprehensive services that empower organizations to engage groups of customers and stakeholders on a continuous basis for the express purpose of extracting and managing insight to drive better, faster decisions. Learn more about the fastest-growing solution in market intelligence, meet our global partners and view our client stories at www.visioncritical.com. Follow us on Twitter at https://twitter.com/visioncritical.
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Media Contact
Jenny Smelyanets
Vision Critical
212-402-8238
media@visioncritical.com