Press Releases

Vision Critical’s Angus Reid Division Again Correctly Predicts U.S. Election –Uses Entirely Online Methods

Angus Reid Public Opinion—the public affairs practice of Vision Critical—issued a correct forecast of the 2012 United States presidential election using its unique online methodology.

In all, 11 predictions were offered, including the national popular vote, as well as the presidential and Senate races in five states. The final results for all contenders were accurately predicted within the advertised margin of sampling error and, in the 10 races that did not suggest a tie, the winner was properly indicated.

“With last night’s predictions, we have now covered 32 different democratic processes in North America since 2007, issuing a correct forecast 97 per cent of the time,” said Vision Critical Executive Chairman Angus Reid. “This achievement proves the validity of our carefully recruited online panels, and gives our clients the security of knowing that our findings are an accurate representation of the sentiments of an entire nation or state.”

The surveys were conducted on Springboard America, Vision Critical’s proprietary United States market panel which boasts some of the highest response rates in the industry.


National Presidential
  ARPO Final
Obama 51% 50.6%
Romney 48% 47.8%
Other 1% 1.6%


Florida Presidential
  ARPO Final
Obama 49% 50%
Romney 49% 49%
Other 2% 1%


Florida Senate
  ARPO Final
Nelson 53% 55%
Mack 45% 42%
Other 2% 3%


Michigan Presidential
  ARPO Final
Obama 52% 54%
Romney 47% 45%
Other 1% 1%


Michigan Senate
  ARPO Final
Stabenow 56% 58%
Hoekstra 43% 39%
Other 1% 3%


Ohio Presidential
  ARPO Final
Obama 51% 50%
Romney 48% 48%
Other 1% 2%


Ohio Senate
  ARPO Final
Brown 52% 50%
Mandel 46% 45%
Other 2% 5%


Pennsylvania Presidential
  ARPO Final
Obama 51% 52%
Romney 47% 47%
Other 2% 1%


Pennsylvania Senate
  ARPO Final
Casey 53% 54%
Smith 46% 45%
Other 1% 1%


Wisconsin Presidential
  ARPO Final
Obama 53% 53%
Romney 46% 46%
Other 1% 1%


Wisconsin Senate
  ARPO Final
Baldwin 50% 52%
Thompson 48% 46%
Other 2% 2%


About Vision Critical

Vision Critical is the world's leading provider of insight communities, currently supporting over 650 brands worldwide. We build software and provide comprehensive services that empower organizations to engage groups of customers and stakeholders on a continuous basis for the express purpose of extracting and managing insight to drive better, faster decisions. Learn more about the fastest-growing solution in market intelligence, meet our global partners and view our client stories at Follow us on Twitter at


Media Contact

Jenny Smelyanets
Vision Critical

Media Contact
Mario Canseco
Angus Reid Public Opinion