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One Billion and Growing

Quirk's Marketing Research Review recently published an article on the legitimacy of the Internet as representative of the U.S. population and the validity of panels. Kira R. Signer, former Senior Project Director, and Andy Korman, former CEO, of Opinionsite Research discusses the size of the U.S. online market along with Internet usage worldwide.

The web has arrived as a research tool with .97 to 1.1 billion users – approximately one-fifth of the world’s population overall. Signer and Korman claim the majority of researchers now accept that “online research can, under appropriate conditions and restrictions, accurately represent U.S. consumers as a whole.” Furthermore, “online panels are sufficiently representative for good research with online consumers representing almost the entirety of the U.S. market.”As Internet panels become more utilized, telephone surveys and other trusted methodologies become less representative. Consumers are unavailable for random telephone surveying as they embrace cell phones and discard landlines. Industry response rates are declining as respondent frustration increases with telemarketing, over-surveying and push polls, while answering machines further complicate respondent contact. Among those whom actually answer their phone, one study shows phone refusal rate at all time high of seventy-five percent.

Signer and Korman suggest online population representation is parallel to preferred market research sampling target: wealthier, more educated and more Caucasian than the U.S. population as a whole. "In the U.S., Internet users are 'more socially connected than non-users, have a stronger sense of efficacy (perceived control over one's life) and consume more media (newspapers, TV, mobile phone usage) than non-users." This implies that online targets may have more developed and articulate opinions over non users. Anecdotal evidence with online surveys shows a wide range of quality open ended responses.

The article also mentions that following the classic Rogers curve, the bulk of the Internet population are composed of Innovators 2-3%, Early Adopters 12 -13%, Early Market 34%, and Late Market, Mainstream Consumers 34%. According to the Rogers curve, U.S. Internet penetration at 68% has reached well into the late- market mainstream.

Only late-market "laggard or dinosaur" consumers are disproportionately excluded from online representation - consumers who resist purchase until they find it absolutely necessary. These consumers rarely represent a key target market for most companies.

Posted on August 3, 2006
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