Angus Reid Public Opinion, the public affairs practice of global research and technology firm Vision Critical®, has provided the most accurate forecast of a Canadian federal election for the second time in a row.
In 2008, Angus Reid’s final prediction of the Canadian federal ballot was the most precise. This year, the firm has made history by once again providing the most accurate forecast, with a calculation for the five main contending federal parties that differed from the actual vote returns by five percentage points.
“I am pleased with the scope and breadth that our surveys convey to both clients and the interested public,” said Dr. Angus Reid, CEO of Vision Critical. “Our revolutionary online technology continues to provide accurate forecasts of electoral contests, shattering some myths and ill-informed assertions that should definitely be put to bed.”
The May 2 election was the tenth contest at a federal or provincial level in Canada covered by Angus Reid since he introduced his unique approach to online polling in 2007. Full results for previous election coverage can be found here. All of these surveys have relied on responses collected on the Angus Reid Forum, Vision Critical’s Canadian online panel which is among the best managed—and most responsive—in the world, ensuring the highest quality data through in-depth profiling and rigorous quality control.
Throughout the campaign, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted surveys for two of Canada’s leading newspapers—the Toronto Star and La Presse—focusing on topics such as the presence of Green Party leader Elizabeth May in the televised debates, as well as an assessment of voters in English Canada and their religious affiliation.
Angus Reid Public Opinion also carried out two exclusive exercises during the campaign: a second-by-second analysis of the televised debates in English and French using Vision Critical’s innovative Media Testing tool, and a ground-breaking assessment of Canadians and their relationship with politics, which uncovered five different segments that would prove decisive in figuring out the outcome of the 2011 election.
The voting intention surveys published by Angus Reid Public Opinion captured the trends that shaped the 2011 campaign, including the first poll that identified the surge of the New Democrats at the national level after the televised debates. This momentum was later confirmed by a survey that placed the NDP ahead of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec—a spot the party would maintain for the rest of the campaign and on election night.
The final survey of the federal campaign was the first to forecast that the Liberal Party would fall below the 20 per cent mark at the national level, and pegged support for the now three minor opposition parties—Liberals, Bloc and Greens—at exactly the same level they garnered on election night.